← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.19 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 24% | 24% | 4.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 31' | ⚽ | Leonardo Ruiz · Boavista |
| 37' | 🟨 | Leonardo Ruiz · Boavista |
| 39' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 60' | 🟨 | Joca Fernandes · CD Tondela |
| 63' | 🟨 | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 87' | 🟨 | David Bruno · CD Tondela |
| 89' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 12 |
| 12 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days |
| 210.00 |
| 850.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1519.23 | 1478.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.21 | 0.39 |
| eye test v1 | -1.49 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 36.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 34.60 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -2.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -1.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |