← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 41% | 31% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.11 | value: +13% |
| Belenenses win | 27% | 33% | 3.55 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Hicham Belkaroui · Moreirense FC |
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Florent Hanin · Moreirense FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Alfa Semedo · Moreirense FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ronaldo Peña · Moreirense FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Licá · Belenenses |
| 57' | 🟨 | Andre Micael · Moreirense FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | André Sousa · Belenenses |
| 66' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marko Bakić · Belenenses |
| 84' | ⚽ | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rúben Lima · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days |
| 45.00 |
| 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.52 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1450.66 | 1474.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.46 | 6.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| league points | 22.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |