← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 42% | 31% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 38% | 3.23 | value: +22% |
| Maritimo win | 27% | 31% | 3.56 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 41' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 51' | 🟨 | David Bruno · CD Tondela |
| 53' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Santos · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days |
| 837.00 |
| 1112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.32 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1489.02 | 1524.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.79 | 5.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.57 | -2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.35 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |