← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 84% | 84% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 13% | 8.30 | value: +7% |
| Boavista win | 4% | 4% | 25.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 22' | 🟨 | Nuno Henrique · Boavista |
| 37' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 40' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Boavista |
| 62' | ⚽ | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 66' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 67' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 83' | 🟨 | Stephane Sparagna · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days |
| 289.00 |
| 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1877.81 | 1521.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.29 | 7.63 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| league points | 67.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.58 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.22 | — |
| state index | 1.55 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |