← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 76% | 79% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.80 | fair |
| Feirense win | 7% | 6% | 13.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 28' | 🟨 | Alejandro Grimaldo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 41' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 41' | 🟥 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 59' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jean Sony Alcenat · Feirense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 72' | 🟨 | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 75' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 86' | 🟥 | Antonio Briseño · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 25 |
| 1 | On target | 16 |
| 0 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days |
| 746.00 |
| 1020.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1452.65 | 1936.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.93 | 11.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 69.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | 1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.34 |
| state index | -0.52 | 2.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | 1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |