← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 79% | 83% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.31 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 6% | 5% | 16.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 72' | 🟨 | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 73' | 🟨 | Sérgio Oliveira · FC Porto |
| 80' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 86' | 🟨 | Xavier · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mário Felgueiras · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟥 | José Sá · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 15 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| coach days | 161.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.37 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1443.80 | 1895.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.10 | 27.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 1.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.80 |
| league points | 21.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 2.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.22 |
| state index | -1.16 | 1.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |