← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 52% | 52% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 20% | 20% | 4.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 70' | 🟨 | Robert Ahman-Persson · Belenenses |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| coach days | 344.00 | 831.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1475.85 | 1487.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.62 | 16.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| league points | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | -1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |