← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vasco Santos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 59% | 62% | 1.65 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.84 | fair |
| Feirense win | 16% | 14% | 6.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 24' | 🟨 | Gabrielzinho · Rio Ave FC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Luís Aurélio · Feirense |
| 48' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 54' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 57' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 62' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · Rio Ave FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Antonio Briseño · Feirense |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days |
| 2078.00 |
| 739.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1575.30 | 1457.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.03 | -17.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 37.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.60 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |