← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.33 | value: +11% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 24% | 23% | 4.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Nuno Henrique · Boavista |
| 42' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 54' | 🟨 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Renan Ribeiro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 81' | 🟨 | Dankler · GD Estoril Praia |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | David Simão · Boavista |
| 87' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days |
| 190.00 |
| 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1515.16 | 1451.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.59 | -32.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.80 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| league points | 33.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.34 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |