← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 82% | 90% | 1.19 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 12% | 7% | 8.15 | fair |
| Aves win | 6% | 3% | 16.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Aves |
| 51' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 70' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Aves |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jorge Fellipe · Aves |
| 75' | ⚽ | Rúben Dias · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ljubomir Fejsa · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Machado · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| coach days |
| 1013.00 |
| 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1934.86 | 1459.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.13 | 67.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.56 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 62.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.09 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.77 | -1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.06 | — |
| state index | 2.06 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |