← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 45% | 41% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.46 | value: +9% |
| Portimonense win | 27% | 27% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Aves |
| 40' | 🟨 | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 47' | ⚽ | Nildo Petrolina · Aves |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 55' | 🟨 | Braga · Aves |
| 58' | 🟨 | Felipe Macedo · Portimonense |
| 78' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Aves |
| 83' | ⚽ | Derley · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days |
| 63.00 |
| 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1442.56 | 1496.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.79 | 55.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 48.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| league points | 22.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | -1.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |