← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 38% | 31% | 2.60 | fair |
| Chaves win | 33% | 35% | 2.97 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.29 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jefferson · Chaves |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ricardo Costa · CD Tondela |
| 46' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 74' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Chaves |
| 82' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · CD Tondela |
| 88' | 🟨 | Murilo Freitas · CD Tondela |
| 89' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Chaves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 23 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 824.00 | 611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1488.07 | 1574.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.66 | 17.66 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 25.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.55 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 26.20 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |