← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vasco Santos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 40% | 43% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.99 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 27% | 23% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Alfa Semedo · Moreirense FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ricardo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 56' | 🟨 | Zizo · Moreirense FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mohamed Abarhoun · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ronaldo Peña · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bilel Aouacheria · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 12 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days |
| 31.00 |
| 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1442.35 | 1456.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.68 | -27.78 |
| eye test v1 | -1.40 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.71 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |