← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 36% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 37% | 2.96 | value: +9% |
| Feirense win | 32% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 28' | ⚽ | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 51' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 55' | ⚽ | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 62' | 🟨 | Raphael Rossi-Branco · Boavista |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rafael Crivellaro · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days |
| 732.00 |
| 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1438.65 | 1534.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.11 | 7.71 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.60 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.53 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.14 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |