← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 86% | 86% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 9.85 | value: +9% |
| Maritimo win | 4% | 3% | 24.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 22' | ⚽ | Alejandro Grimaldo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 41' | 🟨 | Pablo Santos · Maritimo |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 57' | 🟥 | João Gamboa · Maritimo |
| 81' | ⚽ | Andrija Živković · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabricio Baiano · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| coach days |
| 1006.00 |
| 1098.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1932.42 | 1516.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.58 | -35.08 |
| eye test v1 | 1.65 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 59.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.46 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 6.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.06 | — |
| state index | 1.76 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |