← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 71% | 73% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.20 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 11% | 10% | 9.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 16' | ⚽ | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 44' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 48' | 🟨 | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 59' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 66' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 23 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days |
| 604.00 |
| 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1501.63 | 1884.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.04 | 13.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 27.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.22 |
| state index | 0.33 | 1.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.39 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |