← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 49% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 37% | 3.58 | value: +31% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 24% | 19% | 4.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | William · Chaves |
| 29' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Chaves |
| 32' | 🟨 | Pepê · GD Estoril Praia |
| 78' | 🟨 | Chambos Kyriakou · GD Estoril Praia |
| 80' | 🟨 | Renan Ribeiro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 83' | 🟨 | Djavan · Chaves |
| 84' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · Chaves |
| 88' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days |
| 604.00 |
| 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1550.51 | 1471.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.24 | 30.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 33.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |