← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 52% | 58% | 1.87 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.37 | fair |
| Feirense win | 19% | 17% | 5.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | ⚽ | Vincent Sasso · Belenenses |
| 62' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marko Bakić · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| coach days | 329.00 | 725.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1464.33 | 1446.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.12 | -29.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 67.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| league points | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.54 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |