← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 47% | 47% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
| Aves win | 26% | 25% | 3.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lionn · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nildo Petrolina · Aves |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Aves |
| 83' | 🟥 | Marcão · Rio Ave FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Braga · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days |
| 2063.00 |
| 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1593.07 | 1437.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.49 | 26.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 36.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.11 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.41 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |