← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Wed, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vasco Santos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 79% | 79% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 6.90 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 7% | 7% | 14.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Diego Reyes · FC Porto |
| 17' | ⚽ | Eduardo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 43' | 🟨 | Renan Ribeiro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 53' | ⚽ | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 57' | 🟨 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 59' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 67' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 70' | 🟨 | Victor Andrade · GD Estoril Praia |
| 70' | 🟨 | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hernani · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 24 |
| 3 | On target | 13 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 27 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 112.00 | 265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.77 |
| elo | 1493.30 | 1900.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.77 | 11.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 1.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 21.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 2.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 29.51 |
| state index | 0.25 | 1.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |