← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 72% | 69% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.13 | value: +10% |
| CD Tondela win | 9% | 10% | 10.99 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 23 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.