← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 84% | 79% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 15% | 8.65 | value: +26% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 5% | 6% | 21.00 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Sérgio Oliveira · FC Porto |
| 14' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 34' | ⚽ (og) | Marcelo · FC Porto |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sérgio Oliveira · FC Porto |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Rio Ave FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 84' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 25 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.36 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days |
| 262.00 |
| 2058.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 1.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1875.52 | 1598.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.15 | 2.98 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| league points | 55.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.62 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.95 | — |
| state index | 1.74 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |