← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 38% | 35% | 2.57 | fair |
| Chaves win | 32% | 33% | 3.09 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Edno · Moreirense FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Chaves |
| 67' | 🟨 | Filipe Melo · Chaves |
| 71' | 🟥 | Hicham Belkaroui · Moreirense FC |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 81' | 🟨 | Arsénio Nunes · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Furlan · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 2 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days |
| 17.00 |
| 597.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1452.97 | 1541.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.17 | 5.72 |
| eye test v1 | -1.42 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 19.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.26 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |