← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 80% | 87% | 1.22 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 15% | 9% | 6.70 | fair |
| Boavista win | 6% | 3% | 17.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| coach days |
| 992.00 |
| 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1927.40 | 1524.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.93 | -2.44 |
| eye test v1 | 1.43 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 53.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.41 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.30 | — |
| state index | 1.71 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |