← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 55% | 46% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.60 | value: +14% |
| Maritimo win | 18% | 22% | 5.48 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Maritimo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Paulo Machado · Aves |
| 63' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ricardo Valente · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Aves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charles · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 47.00 | 1084.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1424.13 | 1524.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.59 | -49.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 20.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.40 | 26.97 |
| state index | -0.22 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.58 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |