← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 40% | 35% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.19 | fair |
| Feirense win | 29% | 34% | 3.35 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 30' | 🟨 | — · Portimonense |
| 32' | ⚽ | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
| 40' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 47' | 🟨 | Wellington Carvalho · Portimonense |
| 53' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 60' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Hackman · Portimonense |
| 69' | ⚽ | Wellington Carvalho · Portimonense |
| 83' | 🟨 | Zé Manuel · Feirense |
| 88' | ⚽ | Shoya Nakajima · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days |
| 717.00 |
| 595.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1463.08 | 1484.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.02 | 28.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 20.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.64 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.86 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |