← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 42% | 41% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.28 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 19' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
| 54' | 🟨 | Chambos Kyriakou · GD Estoril Praia |
| 60' | 🟨 | Alfa Semedo · Moreirense FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Eduardo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 86' | 🟨 | Hicham Belkaroui · Moreirense FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days |
| 11.00 |
| 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1464.12 | 1484.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.23 | 18.48 |
| eye test v1 | -1.26 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.89 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |