← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 42% | 38% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Aves win | 28% | 33% | 3.51 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Nuno Tomas · Aves |
| 17' | 🟨 | Adriano Facchini · Aves |
| 28' | ⚽ | Hamdou Elhouni · Aves |
| 30' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Aves |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Machado · Aves |
| 44' | ⚽ | Nuno Tomas · Belenenses |
| 79' | 🟨 | Derley · Aves |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luis Farina · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| coach days | 316.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1467.77 | 1413.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.57 | 6.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.86 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |