← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 58% | 56% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.91 | value: +8% |
| Maritimo win | 17% | 17% | 5.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Pablo Santos · Maritimo |
| 39' | ⚽ | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 62' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Maritimo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Diego Lopes · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 87' | 🟥 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 2050.00 | 1077.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1586.75 | 1518.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.81 | -42.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 33.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.27 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |