← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 49% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.35 | value: +5% |
| CD Tondela win | 22% | 24% | 4.39 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ricardo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 36' | ⚽ | Tyler Boyd · CD Tondela |
| 40' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 50' | 🟨 | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 59' | 🟥 | Icaro · CD Tondela |
| 70' | 🟥 | Rui Correia · Pacos Ferreira |
| 78' | 🟨 | Gian Martins · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| coach days | 131.00 | 801.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1486.88 | 1459.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.93 | -20.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |