← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Tue, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 41% | 37% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.08 | fair |
| Boavista win | 27% | 30% | 3.70 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Raphael Rossi-Branco · Boavista |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Machado · Aves |
| 13' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
| 17' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Aves |
| 20' | 🟨 | Mateus · Boavista |
| 39' | 🟨 | Carlos Ponck · Aves |
| 44' | ⚽ | Alexandre Guedes · Aves |
| 52' | 🟨 | Rochinha · Boavista |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Aves |
| 70' | ⚽ | Vítor Gomes · Aves |
| 76' | 🟨 | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 82' | 🟨 | Stephane Sparagna · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 36.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1392.04 | 1535.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.55 | -3.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -1.24 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |