← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 39% | 40% | 2.52 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 30% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 18' | ⚽ | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 25' | 🟨 | Everton · Maritimo |
| 29' | ⚽ | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ruben Ferreira · Maritimo |
| 42' | 🟨 | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 47' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 1072.00 | 584.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1543.03 | 1463.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.51 | 8.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.89 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |