← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 40% | 36% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.24 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 30% | 33% | 3.29 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 19' | ⚽ | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 67' | 🟨 | Mohamed Abarhoun · Moreirense FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 796.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1471.49 | 1451.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.50 | 5.92 |
| eye test v1 | -1.36 | -1.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 22.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 61.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.76 | -2.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |