← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 37% | 25% | 2.65 | fair |
| Feirense win | 32% | 21% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 54% | 3.10 | value: +68% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | William · Chaves |
| 34' | ⚽ | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 83' | 🟨 | Hugo Seco · Feirense |
| 87' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 705.00 | 583.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1475.49 | 1538.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.10 | 10.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| league points | 20.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.90 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |