← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 82% | 81% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.60 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 5% | 5% | 18.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Bruno Teles · Rio Ave FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jardel · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 63' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Rio Ave FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Rúben Dias · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 87' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 2 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.36 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 978.00 | 2043.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1940.58 | 1608.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.15 | -3.19 |
| eye test v1 | 1.67 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 47.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.43 | — |
| state index | 1.59 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |