← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 48% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.08 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 21% | 23% | 4.73 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Everton · Maritimo |
| 22' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ruben Ferreira · Maritimo |
| 43' | ⚽ | Mateus · Boavista |
| 60' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 80' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 152.00 | 1067.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1526.75 | 1552.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.57 | -26.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| league points | 24.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |