← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Tue, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 78% | 85% | 1.25 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 16% | 10% | 6.13 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 6% | 6% | 16.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | 🟨 | Boubacar Fofana · Moreirense FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Rúben Lima · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jhonatan · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boubacar Fofana · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Boubacar Fofana · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Majeed Waris · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 1 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 213.00 |
| 243.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.81 |
| elo | 1444.03 | 1870.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.51 | 16.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 15.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.60 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.95 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |