← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Tue, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 45% | 50% | 2.19 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 26% | 22% | 3.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Pepê · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lucas Evangelista · GD Estoril Praia |
| 71' | ⚽ | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 90.00 | 791.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1441.06 | 1488.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.56 | 19.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | -2.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |