← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 45% | 51% | 2.18 | value: +12% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 28% | 22% | 3.47 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 15' | ⚽ | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 29' | ⚽ | Shoya Nakajima · Portimonense |
| 32' | 🟨 | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 32' | 🟨 | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Felipe Macedo · Portimonense |
| 50' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Yuri Ribeiro · Rio Ave FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabrício · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 25 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 577.00 | 2038.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1457.40 | 1631.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.86 | 19.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.69 | 25.32 |
| state index | -0.72 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |