← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Goncalo Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 45% | 51% | 2.17 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.08 | fair |
| Feirense win | 23% | 21% | 4.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 16' | ⚽ | Héctor Quiñones · Pacos Ferreira |
| 54' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 75' | ⚽ | Gian Martins · Pacos Ferreira |
| 85' | 🟨 | João Silva · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| coach days | 120.00 | 699.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.59 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1484.63 | 1483.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.97 | 16.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 3.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -2.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |