← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 70% | 74% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.89 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 10% | 10% | 9.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Diogo Viana · Belenenses |
| 33' | 🟨 | Eduardo Salvio · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 60' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 78' | 🟨 | André Sousa · Belenenses |
| 86' | ⚽ | Nathan · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florent Hanin · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vincent Sasso · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fredy · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟥 | Filipe Chaby · Belenenses |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 303.00 | 973.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1476.36 | 1928.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.18 | 13.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.79 |
| league points | 20.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 2.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.73 |
| state index | -0.78 | 1.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |