← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 34% | 38% | 2.87 | value: +8% |
| Moreirense FC win | 34% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | João Silva · Feirense |
| 8' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Boubacar Fofana · Moreirense FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mohamed Abarhoun · Moreirense FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 69' | 🟨 | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Caio · Feirense |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alex Kakuba · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 1 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.67 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days |
| 691.00 |
| 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1476.15 | 1451.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.22 | 14.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.82 | -1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |