← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 47% | 41% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.39 | value: +15% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 42' | 🟨 | Sami · Aves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Defendi · Aves |
| 45' | 🟨 | André Leão · Pacos Ferreira |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ricardo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 76' | 🟨 | Rafael Defendi · Pacos Ferreira |
| 80' | ⚽ | Bruno Moreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 83' | 🟨 | Héctor Quiñones · Pacos Ferreira |
| 85' | 🟨 | Fernando Tissone · Aves |
| 89' | 🟨 | Xavier · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 26 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 20.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1410.83 | 1469.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.31 | -18.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.07 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |