← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 81% | 85% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 11% | 7.60 | fair |
| Chaves win | 6% | 4% | 16.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 19' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 47' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 964.00 | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1926.28 | 1545.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.94 | 28.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.82 |
| league points | 43.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.73 | — |
| state index | 1.71 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |