← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 88% | 88% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 8% | 11.56 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 3% | 3% | 29.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 62' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 2 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 12 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 232.00 | 780.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 5.00 |
| -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1869.14 | 1489.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.55 | 32.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 45.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.65 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | -1.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.95 | — |
| state index | 1.71 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -1.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |