← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 44% | 45% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.18 | fair |
| Feirense win | 25% | 24% | 3.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Luís Aurélio · Feirense |
| 47' | ⚽ | Murilo Freitas · CD Tondela |
| 54' | ⚽ | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 57' | 🟨 | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 57' | 🟨 | Oghenekaro Etebo · Feirense |
| 74' | ⚽ | João Silva · Feirense |
| 75' | 🟨 | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 83' | 🟥 | Jean Sony Alcenat · Feirense |
| 88' | 🟨 | Icaro · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
| 90' | ⚽ | Murilo Freitas · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.63 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 775.00 | 684.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| elo | 1476.87 | 1489.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.34 | 3.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.38 | -1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.10 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |