← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 36% | 42% | 2.74 | value: +16% |
| Portimonense win | 33% | 28% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 37' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 40' | 🟥 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 41' | ⚽ | Talocha · Boavista |
| 43' | 🟨 | Raphael Rossi-Branco · Boavista |
| 47' | 🟨 | Mateus · Boavista |
| 49' | 🟨 | Felipe Macedo · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vagner · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felipe Macedo · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟥 | Felipe Macedo · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 135.00 | 562.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1526.88 | 1456.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.13 | -9.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |