← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 38% | 30% | 2.58 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 31% | 40% | 3.12 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Marko Bakić · Belenenses |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tiago Caeiro · Belenenses |
| 77' | 🟨 | Marcão · Rio Ave FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 83' | 🟨 | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · Rio Ave FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 88' | 🟨 | Fredy · Belenenses |
| 88' | 🟨 | Lionn · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | — · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟥 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 90' | ⚽ | Francisco Geraldes · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| coach days | 288.00 | 2023.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1480.90 | 1595.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.22 | 19.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| league points | 19.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |