← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Tue, Jan 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Goncalo Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 43% | 44% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 2.92 | fair |
| Boavista win | 24% | 22% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Bernardo Dias · Belenenses |
| 20' | 🟨 | Stephane Sparagna · Boavista |
| 33' | 🟨 | Leonardo Ruiz · Boavista |
| 50' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mateus · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.63 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| coach days | 283.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1481.33 | 1526.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.41 | -0.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |