← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 35% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 35% | 40% | 2.81 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 34' | 🟨 | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 34' | 🟥 | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 54' | ⚽ | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 68' | 🟨 | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 73' | ⚽ | Shoya Nakajima · Portimonense |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ewerton · Portimonense |
| 80' | 🟨 | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ricardo Ferreira · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 99.00 | 556.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1470.95 | 1454.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.81 | 1.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |